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Aside from a sabbatical from the fantasy football hobby for last year's 2008, I have played Fantasy Football since 1997. While I have dabbled in online Fantasy Football games (Yahoo, ESPN, RT Sports, Sporting News, etc.), I find that my favorite style of fantasy football is when the troop all gets together on a fateful “Draft Day”, downs a few beers, scarfs down some snacks, and yell taunts at one another while a live draft is held. That is what I first learned to do and I'm lucky to still be with the same group since '97 (barring a few changes in the league roster).

As far as this year's draft goes, the number one draft pick certainly seems to be a mystery. 2007's stats immediately point to someone like Tom Brady, but now his durability and heart are in question. The guy just got married. It's not going to prevent him from throwing 30+ TD's this year, but I hope no one thinks of that as a guarantee. He's won three Super Bowls, was MVP for two of them, and mark my words, if he wins it again this year, he will retire and become a family man who dabbles in politics for the Republican Party.

With Brady out, and perennial first-pickers Peyton Manning and LaDainian Tomlinson greatly declining in statistical output, that first makes one wonder “What is the position that will be #1.” Obviously the two favorites in this category are Quarterback or Running Back, depending on what scoring system your fantasy league uses. Every so often, a Wide Receiver can have great enough talent that they may at least earn a consideration for #1, but realistically, it's all about QB's or RB's.

And in 2009, I have a hunch it's going to be a RB.

Though the evolution of the NFL seems to work in waves, it does appear that the latter half of the '00 decade has seemed to revert to the 80's style of pass-pass-pass. I'm not saying that there are a group of young gunslingers like Kelly, Marino, Esiason, and Elway out there, but there has definitely been more emphasis on a high-risk/high-output style of play. Even with the bevy of running back talent that is overflowing in the NFL, teams seem to live and die by the pass. More often than not, if a first down run play doesn't get 4+ yards, I always find that the team is quick to abandon the run on that set of downs.

However, because of this evolution, defensive backs are getting smarter. No longer are the cornerbacks and safeties just the “little guys on defense” like they seemed to be touted in the 1990's. Now some of these guys (safeties in particular) are built like linebackers. Secondary coaches are becoming as important as quarterback coaches nowadays because of the dire importance of a team's secondary.

Also, what I have noticed around the league is that though the teams are leaning more towards the pass (and defenses will play the pass more, be it pass-blitzing or cover-2 schemes), there are not a lot of QB-WR combinations that warrant record-breaking threats like Brady and Moss in 2007.

Including Brady and Moss.

There are not a lot of combinations of the two in the NFL. It seems that if a team has a great WR, they have a mediocre QB. Or vice versa.

Tom Brady has Randy Moss, but we can expect to see two people covering Moss deep 24/7. The only perceivable Brady-WR threat is the Wes Welker factor. However, Welker is virtually a ghost in the red zone. Welker is always the man for first downs when marching down field, but his TD output is squat. I think Mike Vrabel outcaught Welker in TD's in the last few season. (Probably not, but it seems like that sometimes.)

T.J. Houshyourmomma is now in Seattle with Matt Hasselbeck. If T.J. went to Seattle 5-8 years ago, I'd consider this a lethal tandem. But Hasselbeck is a walking infirmary as of late, and his deep pass threat has diminished.

Terrell Owens, hate him as I may, is an elite receiver, but who does he have throwing to him? Trent Edwards? Sorry, but no. I hope Terrell Owens' Key to the City in Buffalo allows him to get into his agent's office to slap some sense into him.

Chad Ochocinco is just… he's not worth the hassle anymore. The guy's got all the talent in the world, but he wears his ego around his neck like an anchor.

Reggie Wayne and Peyton Manning were THE duo a few years back. However, Reggie Wayne does not have the same fortune as Marvin Harrison had all those years to have Manning in his prime.

Drew Brees threw for over 5,000 yards last year. He also threw for 34 TD's. However, don't expect Lance Moore to catch 11+ TD's this year.

Same with Philip Rivers… he threw for 34 TD's, but the most were to Vincent Jackson for a whopping 7 receiving TD's.

People have high hopes for Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson. Hope all you want, Detroit. Stafford can't throw many passes from his back, the sideline, or the infirmary.

So, who is the number 1 pick going to be? Who will have the most output as a running back so much that it will outshine their quarterback counterparts? A few years back, throwing the likes of Ladainian Tomlinson or Larry Johnson in here would not have been a bad move at all. But now?

Michael Turner surprised a ton of people last year, but his production waned in the last quarter of the season (much to the boost to Matt Ryan's stats). Matt Forte, Steve Slaton, and Chris Johnson all impressed the NFL with their rookie campaigns in '08.

What I think is the key to this choice is to figure out which team is most willing to let go of their two-pronged running back attack and focus just on one feature back.

Last year, Tennessee benefited from the Lendale White / Chris Johnson combo that netted them 2,001 yards and 24 TD's. And Carolina went run-crazy with their teamup of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart rushing for a whopping 2,351 yards and combining for 28 TD's.

If Minnesota secured themselves a solid quarterback in the off-season (like Cutler or Cassel) or moved up in the draft to grab Stafford or Sanchez, I think this pick would automatically go to Adrian Peterson, hands down. But because the skill-set of the Minnesota offensive attack is so heavily run-based, it will be more-easily defended against with eight (or even nine!) men in the box when Peterson is on the field.

Even with that said, I do think a lot of leagues will pick Peterson first. If I had the #1 pick in a fantasy football draft… it would be: DeAngelo Williams. I know that he is part of the one-two combo in Carolina, but I think even perennially crappy coach John Fox will be able to see that DeAngelo Williams AVERAGED five and a half yards a carry last year, got him over 1,500 yards on the ground AND got him a league-leading 18 TD's. He's not horrible in the receiving department either, though he is no Michael Westrbook.

Other dark horses for this are aforementioned RB's Steve Slaton and Chris Johnson – young studs with excellent receiving ability out of the backfield (50 catches and 42 catches respectively, all while gaining over 1,000 yards on the ground and 10 total TD's or more).

Anyway, that's my pick – DeAngelo Williams.

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regards
danny deqsta
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