FIRST OVERALL QBs TAKEN
Yesterday I discussed the risks and rewards of having the first overall pick. With Detroit thinking of Georgia QB Matthew Stafford, let’s take a look at how number one overall Super Bowl era QB picks have panned out over the years.
1970 – Terry Bradshaw, Louisiana Tech, (Pittsburgh Steelers), (Hall of fame, 4 time Super Bowl winner after a very slow start). Grade A
1971 – Jim Plunkett, Stanford, (Patriots), (Super Bowl winner in Oakland after leaving a then dreadful New England franchise). Grade: F for New England, B for his career
1975 – Steve Bartkowski, California, (Atlanta Falcons), (Above average QB who never brought his team to the next level. Picked before Walter Payton). Grade: B-
1983 – John Elway, Stanford, (Baltimore Colts – traded to Denver), (Hall of Fame. One of the top QBs in the NFL’s history, and perhaps the greatest college QB ever). Grade: A
1987 – Vinny Testaverde, Miami, (Tampa Bay Buccaneers), (An over rated prospect on an excellent college team, bombed out at first, but became serviceable later in his career). Grade: F for Tampa, C for his career.
1989 – Troy Aikman, UCLA, (Dallas Cowboys), (Hall of Fame. Revived the Cowboys franchise, winning three Super Bowls). Grade: A
1990 – Jeff George, Illinois, (Indianapolis Colts), (Amazing arm and no passion for the game. Ended up playing for seven different teams. Bust). Grade: D
1993 – Drew Bledsoe, Washington State University, (Patriots), (A very good QB, but not a great one, eventually replaced by the 199th pick in a draft). Grade: B-
1998 – Peyton Manning, Tennessee, (Indianapolis Colts), (A complete shill, but the best QB today outside of Tom Brady – the 199th pick in his draft). Grade: A
1999 – Tim Couch, Kentucky, (Cleveland Browns), (Brought in to bring life into the resurrected Browns and was poorly coached, lost his confidence, then suffered injuries. Bust). Grade: F
2001 – Michael Vick, Virginia Tech, (Atlanta Falcons), (Gangster wanna be, ended up doing time in a Fed penetetiary for pit bull fighting. Average on the field and a disgrace in many ways off of it. Atlanta took him knowing he had huge character questions). Grade: F
2002 – David Carr, Fresno State, (Houston Texans), (Brought in to a new franchise and was in way over his head. Poorly coached, he lost his confidence quickly, held the ball too long and was sacked mercilessly during his tenure there. Now backs up Eli Manning in NY). Grade: F
2003 – Carson Palmer, USC, (Cincinnati), (World beater talent but his franchise is inept from the main office to the coaching staff, and has become injury prone over the past few seasons. Whether he can become what his ability level will let him is a large question. Cincinnati is a death sentence for talent). Grade: Inc. C if he cannot regain his health.
2004 – Eli Manning, Ole Miss, (San Diego – traded to the Giants), (Inconsistent, but has a Super Bowl ring, and is a lot more palatable than his older brother and father). Grade: B-
2005 – Alex Smith, Utah, (San Francisco 49ers), (Drafted when the franchise was in turmoil. Many people felt he would bomb out, and has proven them correct). Grade: F
2007 – JaMarcus Russell, LSU, (Oakland Raiders), (An atomic cannon for an arm, has shown little but is very young. Has had awful coaching and in a franchise that is always heading the wrong direction). Grade: Inc.
So there we have 4 As, 3 B-, 1 C, 1 D, 2 Inc. and SIX Fs! Now the biggest problem is that drafting a QB is drafting the face of your franchise. If you miss, you’ve set yourself back three to five years. Indy drafted George, went nowhere with him, and then had to wait another 8 years just to obtain Peyton Manning, then had to wait for him to develop.
The first pick will be incredibly expensive for a team. JaMarcus Russell’s 2007 6-year contract is worth $31.5 million in guararntees, and up to $68,000,000 if all goes well for him. Either way that is an incredible hit on your team’s salary cap if you miss.
Matthew Stafford is going to be a risky selection for any team, (about 75 million risks), but picking him first overall might be the death sentence for a Detroit team that needs more help than just that position. \Stay tuned and please write me with any questions or comments.
Matt Sanborn
