Hello all, it is that time of year again where youth springs eternal for your team, and hopes run high as the annual NFL player selection takes place in New York. We are about ten days away presently, and I will be blogging on the draft and answering any questions on what needs your team has, and what potential players might just plug those holes
I have been watching and studying the draft for 25 years now, and I hope I can be of some assistance to you whether you are a draft-nick like me, or this is the first time you’ve paid attention to the selections.
At the present time the Detroit Lions are sitting on the clock with the first overall pick. In more times than not, this is an unenviable position. Now I have a hard rule as far as evaluating drafts – you cannot begin to assess them until three seasons, (five is more realistic), have passed. So let us look at the first picks of the drafts since 1990, skipping the past two, and count the busts, booms, and middle level players.
Busts
1990 – Jeff George, QB, Illinois (A huge arm and no love for the game)
1992 – Steve Emtman, DT, Washington (Injuries and questions about passion)
1993 – Dan Wilkinson, DT, Ohio State (Never panned out anywhere)
1994 – Ki-Jana Carter, RB, Penn State (Hungry player who could never get healthy)
1999 – Tim Couch, QB, Kentucky (Another QB overwhelmed and easily injured)
2000 – Courtney Brown, DE, Penn State (Questions about desire to play)
2001 – Michael Vick, QB, Virginia Tech (About to leave prison)
2002 David Carr, QB, Fresno State (Texans first pick now backs up Eli Manning in NY)
2005 Alex Smith, QB, Utah (Had to restructure contract to compete for spot for upcoming season)
Mid-Level (Still not what you want for this first overall pick)
1991 – Russell Maryland, DT, Miami (Sensible first pick in a talent depleted draft, solid run stopper)
1993 – Drew Bledsoe, QB, Washington State University, (Should be in the Hall of Very Good)
1996 – Keyshawn Johnson, WR, USC, (He’ll tell you he is a Hall of Fame player, but he was a really only good possession receiver)
2003 – Carson Palmer, QB, USC (When healthy can be an elite level QB)
2004 – Eli Manning, QB, Ole Miss (Still developing and has a Super Bowl ring)
2006 – Mario Williams, DE, NC State (Getting better each year – ready to move to the elite status)
Elite Level
1997 – Orlando Pace, OT, Ohio State (One of the best tackles of his generation; a true mauler)
1998 – Peyton Manning, QB, Tenn (Only Tom Brady is above him at his position)
So out of 17 players you have 2 elite, 6 good or above, and 9 busts. Over 50% of the first pick players are washouts before their fifth season.
Presently Detroit is flirting with taking Georgia QB Matthew Stafford. Tomorrow I’ll take a look at number one overall QBs and their risk/reward.
Until then, please feel free to write all questions and comments to me.
Matt Sanborn
